E-commerce continues to grow at a rapid pace across Europe, reshaping how consumers shop and how merchants manage payments. According to Forrester, over the next five years, e-commerce sales across the Europe‑5 economies – France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK – are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8%. By 2029, online sales are projected to account for nearly 21% of all retail sales across these markets, up from 16% in 2024.
Based on these predictions, it’s safe to say that 2026 will see a continued increase in e-commerce spend, with more consumers turning to digital channels and merchants seeking smoother, faster, and more secure payment experiences.
This growth is driving innovation in payment methods, identity verification, and checkout processes, setting the stage for a new era of e-commerce where speed, convenience, and security define consumer expectations.
We’ll explore the e-commerce payment trends merchants and payment providers should look out for as the market evolves.
1. Digital wallets remain a key alternative payment method
Digital wallets are set to strengthen their position as the go-to payment method in 2026, continuing a clear shift toward ‘wallet-first’ checkout experiences. Solutions like Apple Pay, Google Pay, and PayPal are expected to capture an even larger share of global online transaction value, driven by their speed, security, and ability to reduce friction during checkout.
With one-click payments, biometric authentication, and built-in fraud controls, wallets help merchants combat one of the industry’s most persistent challenges: cart abandonment.
A major factor behind the rise of digital wallets is their seamless integration with existing consumer behaviour – particularly the widespread use of debit cards. As Manfred Schulz, Head of Merchant Solutions at Brite, explains:
“The stability of the debit card is primarily explained by its integration into digital wallets. Consumers simply add their card to PayPal, Apple Pay, or Google Pay, thereby bypassing the hurdles debit cards face in online use. Germany is a leading market for digital wallet use, and the concept of a cashless society is gaining increasing importance. Consequently, more and more companies are adding digital wallets as an option in their checkout.”
This ease of use – especially the ability to pay instantly through a familiar device – continues to drive exceptionally high acceptance rates. Shoppers no longer need to manually enter card details or deal with clunky authentication flows; instead, they can rely on a secure app they already trust.
Schulz also highlights that the same consumer preference for simplicity is fuelling the rise of Pay by Bank. While still growing and not yet at wallet-level market share, its adoption is steadily accelerating.
The model appeals to users because it doesn’t require new apps or onboarding steps – customers simply pay directly through their existing banking app.
As 2026 approaches, one trend is undeniable: wallet-based payments and bank-based payments are converging around the same principle – fast, secure, and frictionless checkout experiences. Merchants that prioritise these methods will be better positioned to meet consumer expectations and compete in an increasingly wallet-first digital economy.
2. eIDAS Regulation (eIDAS 2.0) set to transform verification
While eIDAS 2.0 does not directly regulate payments, it’s poised to become one of the most transformative forces in European e-commerce by 2026. The revised framework focuses on standardising digital identity, authentication, and trust services, creating a common foundation that will reshape how consumers verify themselves online.
At the centre of the regulation is the European Digital Identity Wallet (EUDIW): a secure, government-backed identity wallet that all EU Member States must make available by November 2026. This wallet will allow users to store and share verified identity attributes, and will likely become a widely accepted authentication tool across the e-commerce ecosystem. Its integration with checkout flows is expected to streamline both login and payment, enabling faster onboarding and more secure transactions.
Beyond basic identity, the EUDIW introduces the concept of verifiable credentials, opening up a range of new possibilities for merchants:
- Age restriction: Consumers will be able to prove they are over 18 instantly when purchasing regulated goods such as alcohol, tobacco, or gaming products – without lengthy manual checks.
- Selective disclosure: The wallet allows users to provide only the minimum necessary information. For example, a shopper can confirm they meet an age threshold without sharing their full date of birth, reducing exposure of personal data.
- Additional credentials: The EUDIW can store attributes such as an IBAN, proof of education, or potentially even indicators of creditworthiness, creating opportunities for smoother account setup, personalised services, and more efficient financial decision-making.
As these capabilities mature, identity and payments will move closer together. By providing a trusted, universal way to verify who a user is – and what they are entitled to – eIDAS 2.0 lays the groundwork for frictionless checkout experiences, stronger fraud prevention, and deeper consumer trust.
3. BNPL set to mature under regulation
Home to global leaders such as Klarna, Europe has long been the epicentre of Buy Now, Pay Later innovation, driven by consumers’ preference for debit and instalment-based payments over revolving credit. BNPL continues to perform strongly – especially in markets with low credit card adoption, where instalments offer a simple and transparent way to manage spending.
Yet while adoption remains strong, the narrative is shifting from rapid expansion to sustainable, regulated growth.
Under the EU Consumer Credit Directive (CCD II), 2026 will mark a shift toward tighter regulatory oversight. Several European countries – such as the Netherlands by November 2026 – are moving to classify BNPL under consumer credit rules, bringing stricter affordability checks, clearer disclosures, and new compliance requirements.
The shift will introduce important consumer protections, such as enhanced affordability checks, clearer disclosures, and limits on marketing to vulnerable groups. At the same time, it’s also likely to soften BNPL’s rapid growth, as providers adapt to higher compliance costs and more rigorous credit assessments.
Rather than slowing the sector entirely, the effect will be a maturing of the BNPL market, creating a more stable and trusted environment for both shoppers and merchants.
4. Continued growth of Pay by Bank across all demographics
Pay by Bank – or account-to-account (A2A) payments) – is gaining traction across Europe as merchants and consumers alike recognise its efficiency, cost savings, and speed. Regulatory support, including initiatives like Instant Payments Regulation (IPR), is accelerating adoption, while e-commerce businesses are drawn to the model for its ability to bypass card network fees, lowering transaction costs.
Unlike traditional card payments, Pay by Bank allows funds to be settled directly into merchant accounts in real-time. This means orders can be processed immediately, as payment is confirmed rather than pending, improving operational efficiency and customer experience.
The German market offers a clear picture of growing adoption and satisfaction:
- Strong retention: 75% of users who have tried Pay by Bank plan to use it again.
- Key drivers: Security (89%), low fees (88%), and ease of use (86%) are the top factors influencing choice of a new payment method.
- Most appealing features: Zero consumer fees (53%) leads the list, followed by security (46%) and speed of refunds (29%). Notably, speed of refunds ranks higher than instant balance updates (22%), suggesting that consumers value quick money-back processes more than real-time transaction visibility.
With its combination of speed, cost efficiency, and regulatory backing, Pay by Bank is poised to expand further in 2026, moving beyond early adopters and capturing mainstream acceptance across all demographics.
5. Instant refunds to become standard
As Pay by Bank and instant A2A payments gain momentum, consumers are increasingly expecting instant refunds as part of their e-commerce experience. Quick refunds are no longer a ‘nice-to-have’ but a critical factor in customer satisfaction and loyalty.
Advances in payment technology are making this possible. Providers like Brite Payments now allow refunds to be separated from the original payment method. Brite Instant Payouts, for example, enable merchants to refund customers via A2A payments, delivering funds directly to bank accounts within seconds rather than waiting for card network or traditional bank processing.
Consumer expectations reflect this shift. According to our Online Payment Trends report 2025 for Germany:
- 43.6% of consumers expect to receive their funds within 60 seconds of initiating a refund.
- The German market demonstrates strong adoption of SEPA Instant Payments, with over 99% of all payments settled via SEPA completed in seconds, highlighting both the stability and reliability of instant payment infrastructure.
For merchants, instant refunds not only enhance customer trust: they also improve operational efficiency, reducing support queries and streamlining returns. By 2026, instant refunds are set to become the standard expectation in European e-commerce, particularly where A2A payment methods are available.
Read more: 6 Key Facts about Instant Refunds in 2025
6. AI agents and embedded payments
The next frontier in e-commerce is agentic commerce – shopping powered by AI agents acting autonomously on behalf of consumers. These AI agents can anticipate needs, navigate options, negotiate deals, and complete transactions, all in alignment with human intent but with the capacity to execute multistep actions independently.
This represents more than an evolution of e-commerce: it’s a fundamental rethinking of the shopping experience. Boundaries between platforms, services, and payment systems begin to dissolve, creating a seamless, intent-driven consumer journey. The result is highly personalised, frictionless shopping that delivers outcomes faster than ever before.
The potential impact is enormous. McKinsey projects that by 2030, agentic commerce could generate $1 trillion in orchestrated B2C retail revenue in the U.S. alone, with global figures ranging from $3 trillion to $5 trillion. Unlike prior web and mobile commerce revolutions, this trend can accelerate even faster because agents can ‘ride on the rails’ of existing digital infrastructure, executing purchases at scale.
For businesses, the rise of AI agents presents both opportunities and challenges:
- Integration and infrastructure: Companies will need to deploy emerging protocols like Model Context Protocol (MCP), Agent-to-Agent (A2A), Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), and Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) to enable autonomous agent interactions and embedded payments.
- Identity, loyalty, and trust: AI agents require new approaches to identity verification, authentication, and loyalty programs to maintain trust and security in automated transactions.
- Business models: Traditional intermediaries must decide whether to deploy their own agents, adapt to agent-driven traffic, and explore new monetisation and marketing strategies.
The stakes are high. Companies that adapt quickly can reshape industries, redefine value creation, and meet evolving consumer expectations. Those who hesitate risk losing ground.
As agentic commerce matures, embedded payments will be crucial, allowing AI agents to seamlessly complete purchases without human intervention. This integration of AI and payment infrastructure signals a profound shift in how commerce, trust, and financial transactions will operate in the coming years.
The future of e-commerce payment trends – 2026 and beyond
As e-commerce continues to expand across Europe, payment innovation is becoming a central driver of consumer experience and merchant success. From digital wallets and Pay by Bank to regulated BNPL, instant refunds, and AI-powered agentic commerce, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for payments that are faster, more secure, and more frictionless than ever before.
Looking ahead, the future of e-commerce payments will be defined by integration, intelligence, and trust. Consumers will expect seamless experiences that combine convenience with safety, while merchants will need to adopt technologies that reduce costs, accelerate cash flow, and meet evolving regulatory standards.
AI agents, embedded payments, and identity-verification innovations like eIDAS 2.0 signal a fundamental shift. Payments are no longer just a transactional step: they’re becoming an integral part of the shopping journey itself. Businesses that embrace these trends early won’t just meet consumer expectations but also gain a strategic advantage in a rapidly evolving digital economy.
The future of e-commerce payments is here – and it promises to be smarter, faster, and more seamless than ever before.
Conclusion
E-commerce payment trends in 2026 appear poised to evolve and change, making it essential to stay ahead of them. One way of doing that and maximising potential margins is to work with a payments partner that looks after its merchants.
Get in touch with the payment experts at Brite today to learn how you can improve your payment mix by adding Pay by Bank and instant refunds.
